"Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident." — Daniel Kahneman

If people do not know what is going to make them better off or give them pleasure, then the idea that you can trust people to do what will give them pleasure becomes questionable.

People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.

Clearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that.

Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.