“If a man breaks a pledge, the public ought to know it.” — Steve Forbes

Over time, there's a very close correlation between what happens to the dollar and what happens to the price of oil. When the dollar gets week, the price of oil, which, as you know, and other commodities are denominated in dollars, they go up. We saw it in the '70s, when the dollar was savagely weakened.

Obviously, things can get derailed, particularly if, which looks more and more likely, you get a blow-up between Israel and Iran. I think that's a very real probability now. But barring some real blow-up, the U.S. economy will grow, after a slow first quarter, about 3, 3.5 percent this year, far better than it was in 2011.

People are not going to reelect Barack Obama. But will the new president govern as a real conservative? We're going to have to apply the heat to make sure.

One thing on psychology, which we've always known, is that every investor says they're long-term - and they are until the market takes a hit.