"It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at ..." — Daniel Kahneman

After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.

My impression is that the elimination of memories greatly reduces the value of the experience.

Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.